ATO is just a convenience, although I agree it can be a big help in maintaining constant salinity. But I have to ask if the tank will be covered, in which case evaporation can really be a non-issue, and an ATO won't do much, if anything.
A skimmer, IMO, is a necessity for long-term success. All one needs to do is look at the skimmer's product to see what it's doing for the water quality. If you add a sump at some point in the future, you don't necessarily need to change the skimmer. You could, however, move it to the sump so you don't have to see it on the display. Further, if a sump is added in the future, you can do a very cheap ATO system at the sump since it doesn't have to look good.
Skimmer, no question for me...