It is only a vague suspicion, but it is embedded in a larger theory.
The larger theory is that increased calcification also increases phosphate consumption since most phosphate is incorporated into the skeleton and especially into the organic matrix,
this article says.
Blue light of 450 nm wavelength increases calcium ion transport by the coral polyp,
this article says. Increased calcium ion transport means increased calcification. Just as with higher alkalinity tanks and corals with a higher capability for calcification need more phosphate.
450 nm is exactly the wavelength that burns out first in T5 and other fluorescent lamps and HQI, spectroradiometer measurings of lamps during their live spans und during the aging processes have shown.
In LEDs 450 nm is the excitation wavelenght and in many LEDs it is the strongest wavelength, in which most power is emitted, especially in high Kelvin LEDs and Royal Blue LEDs.
What we are observing is the interference between calcification capability and phosphate deficiency. In fact calcification does not take place without sufficient phosphate, so it remains only the calcification capability.
The disturbed and slowed down calcification by phosphate deficiency is either the indicator of a severe phosphate deficiency that causes the STN from the base of the corals or it is even the cause of the STN because the calcification process releases CO2 for the zooxanthellae.