My educated guess would be that the overall luminous intensity would drop over time as the chart shows but think that the overall spectral output would remain fairly similar/stable with LED's. Possible exception could be Whites if the Phosphorous coating degrades, but that would most likely shift more towards Blue then. The inherent problem with Incandescent style lamps is that there spectral quality declines quite rapidly and usually towards a non preferential part of the spectrum ie; Yellow to Green. Time will tell for sure on these questions though as there are certainly a multitude of different LED fixtures out there over many thousands of Reeftanks now. For me, still a very sound choice and not that difficult or expensive to repair/replace emitters when the time comes. ReefBreeders sells lose emitters in most all wanted colors for $1.50 that make it quite easy to upgrade/repair most any of the Chinese imported fixtures out there. So if you are just a little bit handy you could probably get away with a $20-30 fix every 3-5 years and keep more than adequate lighting above your Reeftank.
Cheers, Toddo