You seem to be a pretty experienced reefer, so I think your insight would be valuable. So, I have a new theory. In your years of reef keeping, have you ever had a water change have a negative impact on your tank? I think regardless of parameters and nutrients, water changes are pretty much always a good thing. The reason I ask is bc I have experienced the same. Sometimes corals will be grumpy for an hour right after a water change but that's about it. Since my tank looked much much worse after my water change, I'm theorizing my "clean" water was contaminated. Unfortunately the bucket of clean water was sitting out in a common area of my house for a week, uncovered. My kids had friends over and I'm thinking hair spray or perfume or a myriad of other things could have settled in that bucket. Could that be a possibility?