To recap-
LEDs lumen maintenance is TM21 calculated- to avoid using long term LED manufacturer’s lifespan claims – as great errors can occur over such a long time period.
TM21 lumen maintenance predictions take into account additional /overruling product limitations – such as driver lifespan /LED tolerance variations - and is based on the actual products thermal testing compared with the LEDs LM80 testing results – which is a controlled industry approved method, of providing usable LED lumen maintenance data from the manufacturers LED predictions - as opposed to directly using the manufacturers [unproven] lumen maintenance predictions in the blind hope ,that no other variables [such as those mentioned here] will cause their 100,000hr usefulness claim to fail.
Claims of TM21 calculated predictions of 100,000hrs /L70 would require the LED to have 16,666Hrs of LM80 of elapsed test time – LED efficiency improves every year- the newer more –efficient LEDs are new to the market and usually have not undergone more than 9,000hrs of test time so far -so, the max TM21 prediction you would expect to see would be limited to 54,000hrs [unless the product is using LED from 2 years ago – but the efficiency/energy savings would be lower than new products].
It may be provable, that the LEDs in a product -will run onsite for 100,000hrs – but if the LED driver only lasts for 70,000hrs, it would be pointless.
If the driver last for 100,000hrs – we would expect the products max Ta to be low -We note that many UFO style products use the very same LED driver – made by Meanwell. The HGB240 is often used on 200W models and if ran in an ambient of 40C – would have a lifespan of 60,000hrs.
If a product is said ,to last for 100,000hrs and also have a max, Ta of 45C- they would have to use a driver with a higher Ta rating than the Meanwell HGB240! – we would exepect the product to cost much more, and be accompanied by definitive proof such as, TM21 calculus predictions- and a warranty that guarantees the lumen maintenance after 100,000hrs of operating time.
Onsite temperature conditions affect the products lumen maintenance - a 10C error in guessing the highest site temperature can reduce the light output after 100,000hrs by 20,000hrs – or may lead to driver failure before then.
The gasket seals may it last for 100,000hrs or 22 years.water ingress may occur.
The paintwork may peel off after 100,000hrs – it may breach food safe standards- or look unsightly.