Of course, I couldn't just let this rest, so I satisfied my curiosity, and sorted the math on this out.
The exact definition of total alkalinity (Dickson, 1981) is:
TA = [HCO3-]+2[CO3--]+[B(OH)4]+[OH-]+[HPO4--]+2[PO4---]+[SiO(OH)3-]+[HS-]+[NH3]-[H+]-[HSO4-]-[HF]-[H3PO4]
At any point in the titration, the alkalinity can be expressed as:
(V0*TA - V*N)/(V0+V) = [HCO3-]+2[CO3--]+[B(OH)4]+[OH-]+[HPO4--]+2[PO4---]+[SiO(OH)3-]+[HS-]+[NH3]-[H+]-[HSO4-]-[HF]-[H3PO4]
where V0 is the original sample volume, N is the normality of the titrant acid, and V is the volume of acid added. At the equivalence point, the term (V0*TA - V*N) becomes zero, so we can rearrange the formula to show that the net charge at the endpoint is exactly equal to [H+]:
[H+] = [HCO3-]+2[CO3--]+[B(OH)4]+[OH-]+[HPO4--]+2[PO4---]+[SiO(OH)3-]+[HS-]+[NH3]-[HSO4-]-[HF]-[H3PO4]
Now, my goal is to calculate the pH of this equivalence point to, say, 0.01 pH unit. At a pH of 4.60, a change of 0.01 pH units means a change in [H+] of around 1/10^4.60 - 1/10^4.61 = 5.7E-07. At a pH of 4.20, this 0.01 pH unit change means a change in [H+] of around 1.4E-06. So, within the range from pH 4.20 to 4.60 where we suspect the equivalence point will occur, we can safely disregard any of the factors in the equation above that will contribute significantly less than 5.7E-07 to the total. It can be demonstrated that within this pH range, for seawater, all of the terms except for [H+] and [HCO3-] are at least an order of magnitude smaller than 5.7E-07. This fact allows us to substantially simplify the formula to this, while remaining within 0.01 pH units of the correct answer:
[H+] = [HCO3-]
[HCO3-] can be calculated from the total carbonate alkalinity Ct, if the carbonic acid dissociation constants pKa1 and pKa2 are known. Dickson and Millero (1987) have published formulas for calculating these pKa in seawater based on temperature and salinity (
http://www-naweb.iaea.org/napc/ih/documents/global_cycle/vol I/cht_i_09.pdf). Assuming S=35 and T=20C, we get pKa1 = 5.882 and pKa2 = 9.035. For a given total carbonate alkalinity Ct, [HCO3-] can be shown to be equal to Ct*[H+]*Ka1/([H+]^2+[H+]*Ka1+Ka1*Ka2), so that means that at the equivalence point, we have:
[H+] = Ct*[H+]*Ka1/([H+]^2+[H+]*Ka1+Ka1*Ka2)
Rearranging this, we get:
[H+]^2+[H+]*Ka1+Ka1*(Ka2-Ct) = 0
This is a simple quadratic equation where a = 1, b = Ka1, and c = Ka1*(Ka2-Ct). Assuming a Ct value of, say, 7 dKH, and using the pKa1 and pKa2 values for S=35 and T=20C, solving the quadratic equation for [H+] gives an answer of 5.665E-05, for a pH value of 4.25.
So the theoretical equivalence point for S=35, T=20C, and Ct=7dKH would happen at a pH of 4.25.
Now, this assumes zero dilution of the sample by the titrant, which we know is not possible, so we need to adjust the pKa1 and pKa2 values appropriately for this dilution factor. Taking the Salifert alkalinity test as an example, we would start with 4 mL of sample, but then it would be diluted by the 4 drops of indicator (figure 0.05 mL per drop), plus the 0.46 mL of acid that it would take to titrate 7.0 dKh, for a total volume at the equivalence point of 4 + 4*0.05 + 0.47 = 4.67 mL. So, our S=35 sample would become S=35*4/4.67=29.98. Using S=29.98 to calculate pKa1 and pKa2, we get pKa1 = 5.903 and pKa2 = 9.089. Solving for [H+] using these constants still gives a pH of 4.26.
Regarding my earlier titration curves where I was reporting a value closer to pH 4.6 for the endpoint, I was seriously omitting the dilution factor. Per the Hach alkalinity burette method, I was taking 10 mL of sample and diluting it to appx. 50 mL, and was also using a rather dilute titrant, so that the total volume at the endpoint was around 95 mL. The resulting salinity would have been S = 35 * 10 / 95 = 3.68, which in turn would give pKa1 = 6.111 and pKa2 = 9.469. Even still, the calculated equivalence point pH would be 4.31 in this case. Not sure how I managed to arrive at a pH of 4.6 -- perhaps it was a pH probe calibration issue?
So, assuming that we can trust Dickson and Millero's calculations for pKa1 and pKa2, the theoretical endpoint does appear to fall between pH 4.2 and 4.3.