I've modeled water changes pretty extensively, as have others, and I have a different conclusion: they can help quite a lot over time, particularly with things that you cannot or do not measure.
Water Changes in Reef Aquaria by Randy Holmes-Farley - Reefkeeping.com
While I think that nitrate is not a primary reason to do water changes, the modelling is the same for any accumulating material.
The graph below, for example, says nitrate, but it could be any accumulation material (say, an organic toxin or an inorganic ion) and shows what can potentially happen to it over time under various water change scenarios:
Figure 12. Nitrate concentration as a function of time when performing daily water changes equivalent to 0% (no changes), 7.5%, 15% and 30% of the total volume each month (in other words, 0%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1% per day). In this example, nitrate is present at 100 ppm at the start, and is accumulated at a rate of 0.1 ppm per day when no water is changed.