I had an AI prime over one of our Nuvo 40s (before it went swimming - their mounts are awful) - the Nuvo40's display section is about 24x15x20.
Shadowing was definitely a problem. You may be okay with the fact that your tank is so much shallower - so you can keep it higher and not worry about PAR - but I think with LEDs you're almost always better off with lights that have better spread, or multiple lights.
Frankly, I think a single AI prime is a good solution for something like a Nuvo10 (12x15x13) but not much more if you're planning on anything that needs light on multiple sides. I think AI's claim of 24" of coverage is very optimistic.
I've got Gen3 and Gen4 XR30s over the Nuvo40s now - and I still think shadowing is an issue (and they've got 2 pucks about 7" apart). The Gen5s are much better - and a Gen5 XR15 is pretty close to a gen4 XR30 with a diffuser.
TLDR: I'd tell you two XR15s. But you're probably not looking to spend $1000 after lights and mounts - so probably 2 Primes. Just don't buy the AI mounts - or be really really careful with them. The rubber-footed single screw design is AWFUL and incredibly prone to coming loose if you knock the light sideways.