Via personal experince and reading countless threads, water changes will only temporaily reduce ntrate levels if nothing else is changed. Nitrates rising is common in tanks with few fish and little to no coral feeding, which seems counterintuitive doesn't it?. The bigger the tank, the longer it can typically go before manifesting higher nitrate. I prefer a bit lower than 10 ppm, but many tanks operate just fine at this level.
I've maintained a 12g 'mixed reef' for 7 years now with consistently low nitrates (less than 1 ppm NO3) for most of those years with no mechanical or chemical filtration. The 'how' lies in the balance, which means enough consistent food input to keep the bacteria in the sand bed/live rock processing optimally, while also removing detritus anywhere in the system on a regular basis (the nitrifying/denitrifying bacteria need a constant flow of nutrients to perform optimally). Removing detritus regularly also removes organics from the system before they can break down further which helps keep nitrogen and phosphate stay low.